Uncle Ti 88

In addtion to the previous post of Which Currency to Invest In? I will add in from time to time in this blog some other instruments that you can trade or invest in based on the commitment of traders report or commitment of traders COT proxy. These will give you some trading ideas and save you the hassle of scanning through the whole list of instruments. This will save you time, energy and money. These are provided to you for free. You can choose to use them if you want them to help you in making your trading or investing decisions. I will be covering various instruments which includes currencies, stocks, commodities, etc. I will cover international stocks also. I will cover both long and short trades. However please note that while I may give you the entry signal, I may or may not have the time to give you the exit signal. That, you will have to work it on your own if I do not provide them. It is your responsibility to monitor your own portfolio. If you require any help, please...

Commitment of Traders Report COT CFTC - Silver - Commodity Exchange Inc - 20 December 2011 Silver has been in an uptrend for quite sometime now. However we can see that the number of commercials net short is decreasing since the middle of this year and the prices have been falling ever since. They are leaning towards being net long. The 50% line is something we need to look out for. If that happens silver prices will fall further and it looks like the downward momentum is gaining steam.

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas! Enjoy the holidays! For me I will be working hehe...

Don't want the hassle to go through the Commitment of Traders Report or look through the charts to see which are the best currency to invest in right now? Ok here is a straightforward list applicable in the week starting 25 December 2011 based on last week's Commitment of Traders Report and Commitment of Traders Proxy (20th December 2011). 1) Australian Dollar - Long 2) British Pound Sterling - Short 3) Canadian Dollar - Long 4) Euro FX - Short 5) US Dollar - Long

Back in June 2011, we looked at the Singapore Exchange (SGX) chart. See link here . The commercials were short since April 2011 and it was recommended not to go long in that period if your risk tolerance is low. Let us see if that was a good recommendation. Singapore Exchange SGX Share Price - Commitment of Traders COT Proxy The commercials are still maintaining their net short position. The SGX share price is currently at 6.09. The failed ASX-SGX merger is one of the main headlines that SGX created and what a year it was for SGX in 2011.

News just out that the US markets had a surge of 3% on Tuesday due to: 1) US data showing a surge in new housing start 2) Strong encouraging news on Germany's economy 3) Reports of a Greek deal with private debt holders Now is this a bear trap? And how does the other economy outside of the US and Eurozone doing? As of this writing (data from Bloomberg): TSX : +1.14% BOLSA : +0.13% BOVESPA : -0.42% TA 25 : +1.74% TOP 40 : +1.08% NIKKEI : +0.29% KOSPI : +1.15% ASX 200 : +0.47% STI : +0.91%

How bad is the situation in Europe? Well, it looks bad enough that they are asking the world for help. Just days before it looks like there is hope for the EU and now this. Read the Channel NewsAsia link. One day it is all rosy, next day it is all gloom and doom. News does confuse you doesn't it? Will all these help you in your trading decision? I gave up on all these news releases and just follow what the commercials do. Of course people tell me that I am a sheep following the herd...

Commitment of Traders Report COT CFTC - US Dollar Index - 13 December 2011 How would you use the COT US Dollar Index to trade EUR/USD? Above is the EUR/USD chart along with the COT chart for US Dollar Index (ICE Futures). The commercials are net short of the dollar since reporting date 11 September 2011. The EUR/USD has since gone downhill from there. Although there were some sort of a bull trap for the EUR/USD as you can see on 23 October 2011, if you have stayed with the commercials you would have avoided going long. Now the short position is still in play.

Commitment of Traders Report COT CFTC - Gold - Commodity Exchange Inc - 13 December 2011 The commercial traders have reduced their net short position in the last few weeks. Look at the gold chart below for XAU/USD. If the trend continues we can expect the price to go down further. Is it just a minor correction or the end of the bull market for gold? Well, we will just follow the commercials for now. Gold XAUUSD Chart December 2011

COT Report - Euro FX The Euro is in a confused state right now. Look at where the Euro is heading and what the commercials are doing. The short has been taking place since the reported date of 11th September 2011!

Panin Financial Tbk - JSX The commercials are loading up on this stock. However the prices are going lower. What is happening? The commercials do not always buy at the lowest prices. They accumulate the stock because they have a need to. An example will be like the big commercials such as Hersheys, Cadbury. They buy cocoa because they have need to. They need to come out with the chocolate products to sell to the masses. They buy no matter how low or how high the price of cocoa might be. But we are not here to understand the reasons why they buy or sell. We just follow what they do because we know they have the power to influence the price. When they buy prices will usually go up and when they sell prices usually will go down. This might be a good time to buy into it as prices are lower than when some of the commercials started buying. However don't forget about the stop-loss! Be ready!

Benakat Petroleum Energy Tbk - JSX There was a big move up beginning on 17 Nov 2011. The commercials however have been buying since on 11 Nov 2011. They went in well before anyone else. If you look properly some of the commercials went in earlier than that on 27 Oct 2011.

CentraLand just announced that it will be delisted from SGX next Friday. Pickard Enterprises Limited offered SGD 0.40 per share to acquire all the issued ordinary shares.

MF Global Singapore was suspended by SGX this week and this caused open positions held by some CFD traders of AmFraser, Kim Eng, CIMB accounts to be frozen. MF Global Singapore is the counterparty. Some traders will also be trading with MF Global. So the question for the trader is do I liquidate the positions or transfer the positions to another broker? Larry Williams in his email to his readers suggested to liquidate the positions instead. Why? Because MF Global might be short on cash. They can transfer your positions to another broker but will they also transfer the cash to support that position? No cash to support that position = margin call...

Those of you interested to know what effect the flood has to stocks listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, you can go here: SET Stocks

Pangang Group Steel Vanadium & Titanium Co. Ltd - SZSE The company's performance for the first three quarters showed a dive in profits. It blames the rise in the price of raw materials. The commercials have been net short since August 2011. Pangang Group Steel Vanadium & Titanium Co. Ltd is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd - SGX - COT Proxy Since our last post of Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engineering), the commercials are still net short however the numbers are trending towards the commercials being net long. So let's get the cash ready and wait for the signal to buy!

Tower Semiconductor Ltd - NASDAQ Tower Semiconductor Ltd which is listed both on NASDAQ and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) recently told all its employees worldwide to take 10 days of unpaid vacation leave. The company said that "2011 has been a year full of challenges for the company." The commercials gave been shorting the stock since March 2010!

This is the 2nd Part. List of Tradeable / Tradable (spelling depending on where you live) Commodities, Interest Rates, Currencies, Indexes, Etc (Futures) and Exchanges (for US only): ICE FUTURES U.S COTTON NO. 2 FROZEN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE OJ COCOA SUGAR NO. 11 COFFEE C U.S. DOLLAR INDEX RUSSELL 2000 MINI INDEX FUTURE ICE FUTURES EUROPE CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET ICE OTC NATURAL GAS ICE HENRY HUB SOCAL BORDER FIN BASIS PG&E CITYGATE FIN BASIS NWP ROCKIES FIN BASIS AECO FIN BASIS CHICAGO FIN BASIS HSC FIN BASIS WAHA FIN BASIS PJM WH REAL TIME PEAK OTC MID-C FINANCIAL PEAK OTC MID-C FINANCIAL OFF-PEAK OTC PJM WH OFF PEAK REAL TIME OTC SP15 FIN DAYAHEAD LPM PEAK OTC SP15 FIN DA LPM OFF PEAK OTC COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. SILVER - COPPER-GRADE #1 GOLD KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE WHEAT MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE WHEAT NYSE LIFFE MSCI EAFE MINI INDEX MSCI EMERGING MKTS MINI INDEX CBOE FUTURES EXCHANGE VIX FUTURES

I am often asked what type of instruments can be traded in the futures / options market and what are the exchanges that handle these instruments and options. I will list them below (for U.S only). If you are interested in the Commitment of Traders Report (COT Report), you can download if at the U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission website here. The purpose of the COT is to report the weekly holdings of various level of traders. You can see which type of traders are net short or net long. If you need assistance in reading or interpreting the report, please look through my earlier posts. List of Tradeable / Tradable (spelling depending on where you live) Commodities, Interest Rates, Currencies, Indexes, Etc (Futures) and Exchanges (for US only): CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE CORN OATS MINI SOYBEANS SOYBEANS SOYBEAN OIL LONG-TERM U.S. TREASURY BONDS U.S. TREASURY BONDS CBT ETHANOL SOYBEAN MEAL ROUGH RICE 2-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES 10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES 5-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES 30-D...

Jardine C&C - SGX Jardine C&C gets about 89 percent it sales from Indonesia. PT Astra International which it owns 50.1 percent recently said that Indonesia’s domestic vehicle sales has declined in August when compared to July 2011. The share price has fallen from July's highs but the commercials are still net long.

No commercials to follow, so how do we trade this, are we going to apply for this IPO and have a small piece of this Manchester United's stock? Heard that they approaching Temasek as a cornerstone investor? Will they buy it? See here on what to do  Manchester United IPO - SGX

Google - NASDAQ Commercials are shorting and the run-up in the price looks like a bear trap...

City Developments Limited - SGX CDL prices are down, the commercials it seems are loading up on the stock but if you see the chart they seems to be changing their minds and shorting it... will this continue in the next couple of days?

Silver - Commodity Exchange - Commitments of Traders Report CFTC From the COT chart we can expect silver prices to go up again after the correction made in May 2011. The larger traders or specialists are loading up again on silver.

Crude Oil, Light Sweet - NYME - Commitments of Traders Report CFTC From the COT report (released 3rd September 2011), although we that the commercials are still somewhat bullish on crude oil, the percentage of them being bullish is lower compared to the previous weeks. Can this mean crude oil price will fall in the coming weeks?

S&P 500 Stock Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange     Where is the US market heading especially the S&P 500? The commercials are net long and large speculators are net short. See the chart above derived from the Commitments of Traders report by CFTC - Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Ellipsiz - COT Proxy One of the counters that has the commercials still on the long side, and since June 2011 at that... so one of the stronger counters to brave all this selling...

Epicenter - COT Proxy Just thought of Steve Job leaving Apple, what effect it will be on Epicentre's price...

Commitments of Traders COT CFTC - Gold Where is gold heading? Through the roof! There is no let up by both the commercials and speculators since 2002!

Commitments of Traders CFTC - EUR/USD Please not the above chart is the real COT report released by CFTC and it is not the COT Proxy. The EUR/USD have no proper direction in the last 2 weeks. Euro debt, US debt... both bad news hence even the commercials no have no idea what to do. The week prior to 16 August they are net long but last week they were net short. We see what the report release tomorrow will reveal for this week's positions. If the commercials for Euro are net short again this week, we can expect the EUR/USD go up.

If you are interested to know more the basics of of the Commitments of Traders Report (COT Proxy) you can visit Larry's website here http://www.ireallytrade.com/ or straight to the COT Proxy page here http://www.ireallytrade.com/cotreport.html

Ascendas REIT - COT Proxy In July 2011, they said they were giving 3.2 Singapore cents per unit for the three months ended March 31 2011, compared with 3.37 cents a year earlier. The commercials are selling, however price have been going up. A bear trap?

Midas Holdings Limited The commercials are net short. Although 2Q11 revenues are within expectations, they missed on earnings.

Kateks (Malay for short) aka Shortist will be banned from Friday in Belgium, France, Italy and Spain to so called combat "false rumours" that have caused the fall in the markets. This according to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA).

Petrochina - HKSE Petrochina have a sell signal on Aug 2, 2011. The commercials are net short since then. Missed that signal and only closed the position today at a lost. It is hard to keep track of all the holdings manually. My method is to scan the charts individually to see the signal. Anyone familiar with Ninjatrader and can program an automated stock scanner?

Samko -SGX Commercials are net short Samko. After flying high for the last few months, the time has come...

Red Among the Greens Odd one out?

Something to read about Sheng Siong IPO

Stop-loss are important in every trade... however not many people use them. Image taken from this guy: hooliwang

Cerebos - SGX Essence of chicken anyone?

Capitaland - SGX Commercials are selling and fast. Main downtrend started early this year.

SGX - COT Proxy Past few examples we see the commercials are accumulating even when the prices are falling. But which stocks are the commercials avoiding even when prices are "dirt cheap"? See the chart... SGX! Price falls and commercials are net short!

F&N - SGX Prices are falling and commercials are still net long! Who do we trust? Price or the commercials? Note : Remember that the commercials are not short-term speculators, they do not care what the prices are as they are in for the long-term. They load up more as prices keep on falling. To them it might be a bargain. They do have the resources to stomach the so called paper losses. For smaller investors the decline might be too hard for them handle ie. margin calls, psychology, etc.

Wilmar - SGX Lets see what Wilmar has been up to. China has allowed suppliers to raise the price of cooking oil and Wilmar has done just that. Prices will rise about 5%. Wilmar is the largest owner of branded packaged edible oils in China with a market share of about 45%. Good news? Still the prices are retreating due to massive sell-off. However do take note that the commercials are still net long!

SIA - SGX In July we saw the signal signal to go long as the commercials are loading up on the stock. Straight away in August we are seeing a huge drop in the prices. Do note that SIA has just given out its dividends. This selling could be because everyone is selling the stock after the dividend has been given and also what has been going on around in the world. Of course we are not here to analyse the real fundamentals. What we are going to do is just follow the commercials aka big boys. They are still net longs even though the prices have been dropping although the no. of net longs position holders are declining. Remember that the commercials are not short-term speculators, they do not care what the prices are as they are in for the long-term. They load up more as prices keep on falling. To them it might be a bargain. They do have the resources to stomach the so called paper losses. For smaller investors the decline might be too hard for them handle ie. margin calls, psycholog...

What a week last week has been. The big sell-off seems to continue till today's asian trading session. A lot of news and noise have been coming in. 1) Raising of US debt ceiling 2) Standard and Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating 3) Concerns on Euro's debt crisis 4) Many more! Let us cut all these noise and see what the commercials (COT Proxy) are doing!

SIA - SGX - COT Proxy Referring to the post made on 4th July 2011 SIA Will Fly in July? we saw that the commercials are going to the net long territory and they did a few days later. SIA is indeed flying in July. Price now at 14.72. We will wait for the commercials to be net short before we exit this position.

Lian Beng - SGX After months of being range-bound, looks like a strong long signal has been triggered. Commercials are buying and it just penetrated resistance at 0.35.

Sabana REIT - SGX Sabana REIT has made an uptrend and the commercials are going long. Current price at 0.945. Yield is at 9% based on IPO estimates! Tempting....

SIA - SGX In June stocks has taken some battering. Now that July has come and stocks are known to make the uptrend in July. Is SIA one of them? After failing to rise up in April 2011, the commercials seems to be approaching the net long position. We shall wait for a few more days for the confirmation of that net long position.

Keppel Land - COT Proxy In our 2nd blog post No Trade Keppel Land (K17 - SGX) , we recommend to stay on the sidelines for this counter as the price has moved below the SMA200. The COT Proxy also confirmed this. The price of Keppel Land has been going down and the COT proxy shows that the commercials has been selling since 27 April 2011!

F&N - COT Proxy Here we shall see what signal the COT Proxy gives us. Long signal was given at 5.72 and a short/exit signal at 5.85. Not much of a profit there but is is indeed better than a loss!

F&N - SGX If you look at the first post of this blog Long F&N (F99 - SGX) 6.28 , we are using the Simple Moving Average (SMA200) to trade F&N. Here the SMA200 was triggered long at 6.05 (wait for a couple of bars to confirm) however long was initiated at 6.28 as we have missed the early entry. Stop-loss was triggered at below the SMA200. Here we take it as 5.98, a couple of bars below the SMA200. Our entry is stopped for a loss of 0.30 (Exit at 5.98). Yesterday close was at 5.60. Stop-loss is a very important component in trading. Always have a stop-loss! Always know when to cut your losses instead of hoping the price to turn around. Protect your capital and live to trade another day.

SPDR S&P China - NYSE Want to know where the market in China is heading? The commercials aka " big boys" have been shorting the ETF since April 2011! Now the question is whether the selling will still go on or the price will rebound back-up... according to COT Proxy looks like the commercials are still shorting it... who will you follow? The commercials - "smart money" or  "dumb money"?

BAIDU.COM - COT Proxy Baidu.com aka China's "Google" is having a good run-up since March 2009 (You can trade this on NASDAQ or SGX-ADR-K3SD). Looks like the run-up has cooled down somewhat recently. Baidu is a good barometer to gauge the market's appetite for high-growth/high tech stocks in China. Imagine the growth potential in a country of more than a 1 billion using the search engine! The stock has reached its lowest level since March 2011. The COT Proxy is still in positive territory and this shows that the "big boys" are still net long. Those of you who want to enter long, do that note that this could be a short term correction (good price to enter) or this is a start of a massive correction...

SGX - COT Proxy COT Proxy has given a short signal. Aggressive traders may be tempted to enter long as price has support at 7.3 and price might launch from here. Be careful and those with lesser risk appetite, try to stay away from this counter and wait for the COT signal to turn north.

SBS Transit COT Proxy Hit a high of 2.15 in January this year and moving back to 1.9. Good level to enter long now and the "big players" had been long for quite some time now. Quite defensive and moving up slowly and steadily.

Market Vectors Vietnam - ETF As you can see after a bear run in 2010, things looked like it is picking up for the Vietnamese market in December 2010. Money is pouring into the markets, foreign investors are coming back in and it looks as though Vietnam is on course for a recovery and a major bull market is imminent. However as you can see there was a short signal in January and then a long signal not long after in the same month! It seems the investors or " big players" are confused... should they go in or stay out? Alas a short signal was triggered by the COT Proxy. This tells us that the investors and "big players" are moving out and fast! The downtrend has started and up till now the market is making new lows. With this info, will you be going into the Vietnamese market now and try to catch a falling knife? Do take note that Vietnam is an emerging country and there are many opportunity awaits. We will wait until we have a clear bull signal before we re-ent...

Ever wonder which country's economy is in an uptrend or downtrend? Want to know if investors are putting in hot money or pulling them out of the country? If you have this information, you can better allocate your capital especially if you hold stocks in various countries. You follow what the "big investors" do and try to reap in the rewards. In this series we will look at the market performance of the South-East Asian countries. We start off with Vietnam. Vietnam's economy is one of the underperformers in South-East Asia, while the rest (Singapore, Malaysia) are experiencing somewhat of a bull run. Vietnam has lagged quite a bit. How can you play Vietnam's stock market? 1) For foreign private investors you will have to fly into Vietnam and open a local brokerage account pending approval. 2) or play the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF. We will look at the 2nd option which is accessible to all!

Samko Already had a run-up since Mar 2011... those who want to enter now will have to be aware of this however you be comforted to know that the "big players" are still long on this counter. Anything from 0.18 to 0.24 is a good price to enter, recommended stop will be tight at 0.17

SATS - COT Proxy Got stopped out after the COT Proxy level hit selling territory on daily charts (bought in at 2.67). Looking now for the buy signal to re-enter. Strong upward trend expected if price hit 2.70, will re-enter at this price. If this fails, price might be going down further.

What a month May has been. With the commodities sell-off and some stocks making a push down, it seems like the old adage of "Sell in May & Walk Away" still rings true. Looking at the prices this morning on the SGX, a lot of green numbers are flashing across the board. So is this the signal for the "Buy in July & Watch it Fly" trade to come in (although we are only approaching June)? Have a happy Monday and we will start off looking at the stocks for this week!

For those of you not familiar with the Commitments of Traders Report, COT Proxy, you might want to check out this website Larry Williams Picture Perfect Trading for a brief introduction. I attended one of his Picture Perfect courses a few years ago and this was one of the things he touched on. The COT report is released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission where they show the open positions of traders for futures contracts. For stocks and other instruments there is no such COT report released so what the proxy has done is to simulate/gauge the open positions of these traders.

CapitaMall One of few stocks that just signalled a buy this week @ 1.91. There is time to get into this long trade as the train has not left the station!

Genting Exit trade after being stopped at 2.09. Those who want to enter long, be aware the proxy is turning to bearish level. Better saty out of long trade for now.

  Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd - COT Proxy A defensive stock that mom and pops like to have. But is it a good time to load up on the stock? Starting of a downtrend...