Uncle Ti 88

How bad is the situation in Europe? Well, it looks bad enough that they are asking the world for help. Just days before it looks like there is hope for the EU and now this. Read the Channel NewsAsia link. One day it is all rosy, next day it is all gloom and doom. News does confuse you doesn't it? Will all these help you in your trading decision? I gave up on all these news releases and just follow what the commercials do. Of course people tell me that I am a sheep following the herd...

Commitment of Traders Report COT CFTC - Gold - Commodity Exchange Inc - 13 December 2011 The commercial traders have reduced their net short position in the last few weeks. Look at the gold chart below for XAU/USD. If the trend continues we can expect the price to go down further. Is it just a minor correction or the end of the bull market for gold? Well, we will just follow the commercials for now. Gold XAUUSD Chart December 2011

Panin Financial Tbk - JSX The commercials are loading up on this stock. However the prices are going lower. What is happening? The commercials do not always buy at the lowest prices. They accumulate the stock because they have a need to. An example will be like the big commercials such as Hersheys, Cadbury. They buy cocoa because they have need to. They need to come out with the chocolate products to sell to the masses. They buy no matter how low or how high the price of cocoa might be. But we are not here to understand the reasons why they buy or sell. We just follow what they do because we know they have the power to influence the price. When they buy prices will usually go up and when they sell prices usually will go down. This might be a good time to buy into it as prices are lower than when some of the commercials started buying. However don't forget about the stop-loss! Be ready!

F&N - SGX Prices are falling and commercials are still net long! Who do we trust? Price or the commercials? Note : Remember that the commercials are not short-term speculators, they do not care what the prices are as they are in for the long-term. They load up more as prices keep on falling. To them it might be a bargain. They do have the resources to stomach the so called paper losses. For smaller investors the decline might be too hard for them handle ie. margin calls, psychology, etc.

SIA - SGX In July we saw the signal signal to go long as the commercials are loading up on the stock. Straight away in August we are seeing a huge drop in the prices. Do note that SIA has just given out its dividends. This selling could be because everyone is selling the stock after the dividend has been given and also what has been going on around in the world. Of course we are not here to analyse the real fundamentals. What we are going to do is just follow the commercials aka big boys. They are still net longs even though the prices have been dropping although the no. of net longs position holders are declining. Remember that the commercials are not short-term speculators, they do not care what the prices are as they are in for the long-term. They load up more as prices keep on falling. To them it might be a bargain. They do have the resources to stomach the so called paper losses. For smaller investors the decline might be too hard for them handle ie. margin calls, psycholog...