Uncle Ti 88

I have received emails from readers who asked why I trade purely based on the COT Proxy. Some have also asked me why I didn't cover stocks or instruments by looking at fundamentals such as financials ie balance sheets, profits, losses, assets, debts, dividends etc. I do trade fundamentals ie The Commitments of Traders (COT) Proxy. Basically it simulates what the commercials (smart money, big boys),  the specialists (hedge funds, investment companies) and the speculators (small traders like me) are trading. Just like the real COT report released by CFTC, it simulates the trade the commercials are taking. The commercials are the ones moving the market and we want to follow them. Hence the COT Proxy tells us what these big traders are doing. However I do not analyse stocks based on their financials. As you know financials can be manipulated. We have seen even big companies cooking the books. Enron, WorldCom anyone? Even if securities commissions or local monetary authorities tr...

Olam International - COT Proxy Olam's stock fell after Muddy Waters report that Olam is too ambitious in reporting its profit. Muddy Waters report carries a lot of weight as they shorted Sino-Forest as well as other a bunch of other companies and those companies are on the brink of closing down now. Even though the price has risen in early morning trading today, there is still a lot of downside. Based on our COT Proxy, the commercials has been shorting since early 2011 and another short signal was given in October 2011! The shorts are still in play and we got the signal way earlier than the Muddy Waters report. Stay clear of this stock until we see the commercials turn to net buyers. Don't be fooled when Olam said that they are buying back some stock. Stay clear of that bull trap statement.

Epicentre - COT Proxy         The huge run-up to 0.43 seems tempting to go long. With the recent launch of the Iphone 5seems to make the stock stop short in its decline, will the launch of the new Ipad help boost this stock? The commercials are still net short on this one. It is recommended to wait for a net long signal.

Ascendas India Trust - COT Proxy Want a piece of Indian real estate? Looks like it is not a good time to go into it now, commercials are selling. Although a rebound  might be in sight. They just reported a 20% drop in its distribution per unit to 1.20 Singapore cents for the first quarter ended June 2012.

Asia Pacific Breweries - COT Proxy It is TIGER TIME! This is one stock that everyone is watching now. A takeover battle is in the works. It all started when a Thai billionaire acquired stakes from OCBC and somehow the other shareholders get all jittery and now Heineken NV and Japan's Kirin Holdings are joining in the fun! It was reported that block trades were made this week as unknown buyers are accumulating shares. If we take a look at the COT Proxy, we know that the "big boys" or whoever they are have been accumulating since 14 June 2012 when the prices are still low at 34.50!

Cotton No. 2 Futures - Commitment of Traders Report Take a look at the disaggregated Cotton No. 2 chart. Usually the commercials aka the producers and swap dealers are moving in tandem. Both will either go long or short at roughly the same time. But for this commodity we can see that they move in the opposite direction. See the producers (blue line) and swap dealers (red line). Why is this so? Please take note also that prior to 4th September 2007, Cotton No. 2 was traded on the New York Board of Trade before switching to ICE Futures US.

Gold Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report 12 June 2012 It is said gold traders have been bullish for the past few weeks. According to the World Gold Council, central banks are buying more gold after adding 456.4 tonne in 2011, the most in almost five decades. Above is the chart for the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders for Gold. The smart money (the Producers and Swap Dealers) have been unwinding their short positions steadily. This could mean there might be a drop in gold prices and the end of the bullish run for gold.