Uncle Ti 88

Wilmar Kuok Khoon Ean is increasing his deemed interest in Wilmar. Price seems to be in an uptrend now.

We take a look at euNetworks, a European internet infrastructure company listed on the SGX. Things are looking good for this company. Look at the stock price now (we are not considering the interest of substantial shareholders for now). euNetworks stock chart Look at when the insiders buy into the stock. Do they know or have an indication that the company is doing well? Kai-Uwe Ricke Independent, Non-Executive Director bought on the open market on 14 August 2013. John Scarano who is the Vice Chairman of the board and also the Executive Vice President of Finance, Operations & Corporate Development bought some on the open market on 28 August 2013. Daniel Aegerter Non-Independent, Non-Executive Director bought on the open market on 5 September 2013.  Look at what the disclosure form, part III states: "Mr. Aegerter gave a purchase order to his bank to buy up to 200,000 shares at SGD 0.58 per share. The purchase order was given on 5 September 2013 and was v...

Let's not mix up between insider activity and insider trading. Some people see that it is actually a fine line separating the two. But let's not dwell on that. For stocks trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), the board of directors, key management personnel and substantial shareholders have to report any changes of their interest in the company. Board of directors and key managers have to file in FORM 1: NOTIFICATION FORM FOR DIRECTOR/CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER IN RESPECT OF INTERESTS IN SECURITIES whenever they buy or sell their interest. This creates transparency and their trades are open for all to see. We will use this information to assist us in evaluating a company. There are other forms for other reportables (person/parties) as well and we shall also take a look at those as we go along.

What better way to know about a company than to follow what the insiders think. Insiders in this sense refers to the key people in a particular company. In this blog we consider the insiders to be the board of directors and the key management. These insiders can provide a particular insight into the health of a company. It is said that the insider can sell their stake in a company for many reasons: 1) they want to lock in the profits made 2) they need cash fast 3) they believe the company's stock is going down in the near/long term 4) many other reasons but usually they buy because of only 1 reason, that is: 1) they believe the stock price will go up We will study this as we go along and I will highlight some examples as part of the research. This is another method of following the big boys or the smart money. We used to follow the commercials. Now we follow the people who knows much more than the commercials do. The people who knows the inside story. The insiders.

I have received queries from readers on importing stock prices for SGX, ASX, HKSE, KLSE stocks into Metatrader. Some of the Metatrader data providers have charts for some stocks on the American exchanges suchs as NASDAQ but for other exchanges it is virtually non-existent. It is possible to import such prices into Metatrader, all it requires is just a bit of programming and modification. You can contact me for more details.

Hi All, I guess below is self-explanatory. I am not sure even if this guy is legit. Anyway better be safe than sorry. ---------------- The message: trader811 October 2013 22:26  Hey guys my COT Proxy index is a proprietary tool. i took me years of reassearch and heartache to develop, If you insist on giving away the formula you leave me no choice but to sue. Please stop...this is just not fair.  larry williams My reply: Uncle Ti 8816 October 2013 15:16  We are not giving away the formula, this site is merely providing an overview of the index by sharing examples. Anyway we are no longer going to post anything to do with the cot proxy index anymore. ---------------- I am going to now go into another alternative where we can gauge the real interest of some of the big boys. What better to follow than the real insiders...

I read an article on the ASX website on the factors to consider when choosing which junior mining companies you want to put your money in. There are dozen of these companies and they seem to have lost their lustre due to the China slowdown and this dampens the commodities boom. Here are some of the factors to look out for: 1) What are the kind of commodities the company is mining? eg. gold, uranium, copper, diamonds 2) Where are the projects? eg. Australia, in a volatile African country 3) Are the projects on a big scale? 4) Who is the managing director? 5) How much cash does the company has? These junior mining companies do look attractive given success stories such Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX : PDN). Imagine a share worth a couple of cents going up to $10.00. But do take note that these type of successes are not that common.  

I have received emails from readers who asked why I trade purely based on the COT Proxy. Some have also asked me why I didn't cover stocks or instruments by looking at fundamentals such as financials ie balance sheets, profits, losses, assets, debts, dividends etc. I do trade fundamentals ie The Commitments of Traders (COT) Proxy. Basically it simulates what the commercials (smart money, big boys),  the specialists (hedge funds, investment companies) and the speculators (small traders like me) are trading. Just like the real COT report released by CFTC, it simulates the trade the commercials are taking. The commercials are the ones moving the market and we want to follow them. Hence the COT Proxy tells us what these big traders are doing. However I do not analyse stocks based on their financials. As you know financials can be manipulated. We have seen even big companies cooking the books. Enron, WorldCom anyone? Even if securities commissions or local monetary authorities tr...

Olam International - COT Proxy Olam's stock fell after Muddy Waters report that Olam is too ambitious in reporting its profit. Muddy Waters report carries a lot of weight as they shorted Sino-Forest as well as other a bunch of other companies and those companies are on the brink of closing down now. Even though the price has risen in early morning trading today, there is still a lot of downside. Based on our COT Proxy, the commercials has been shorting since early 2011 and another short signal was given in October 2011! The shorts are still in play and we got the signal way earlier than the Muddy Waters report. Stay clear of this stock until we see the commercials turn to net buyers. Don't be fooled when Olam said that they are buying back some stock. Stay clear of that bull trap statement.

Epicentre - COT Proxy         The huge run-up to 0.43 seems tempting to go long. With the recent launch of the Iphone 5seems to make the stock stop short in its decline, will the launch of the new Ipad help boost this stock? The commercials are still net short on this one. It is recommended to wait for a net long signal.

Ascendas India Trust - COT Proxy Want a piece of Indian real estate? Looks like it is not a good time to go into it now, commercials are selling. Although a rebound  might be in sight. They just reported a 20% drop in its distribution per unit to 1.20 Singapore cents for the first quarter ended June 2012.

Asia Pacific Breweries - COT Proxy It is TIGER TIME! This is one stock that everyone is watching now. A takeover battle is in the works. It all started when a Thai billionaire acquired stakes from OCBC and somehow the other shareholders get all jittery and now Heineken NV and Japan's Kirin Holdings are joining in the fun! It was reported that block trades were made this week as unknown buyers are accumulating shares. If we take a look at the COT Proxy, we know that the "big boys" or whoever they are have been accumulating since 14 June 2012 when the prices are still low at 34.50!

Cotton No. 2 Futures - Commitment of Traders Report Take a look at the disaggregated Cotton No. 2 chart. Usually the commercials aka the producers and swap dealers are moving in tandem. Both will either go long or short at roughly the same time. But for this commodity we can see that they move in the opposite direction. See the producers (blue line) and swap dealers (red line). Why is this so? Please take note also that prior to 4th September 2007, Cotton No. 2 was traded on the New York Board of Trade before switching to ICE Futures US.

Gold Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report 12 June 2012 It is said gold traders have been bullish for the past few weeks. According to the World Gold Council, central banks are buying more gold after adding 456.4 tonne in 2011, the most in almost five decades. Above is the chart for the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders for Gold. The smart money (the Producers and Swap Dealers) have been unwinding their short positions steadily. This could mean there might be a drop in gold prices and the end of the bullish run for gold.

United States Natural Gas ETF - UNG COT Proxy Everyone is hating natural gas right now and it has not been this cheap for over 20 years (if you factor in inflation)!

Straits Times Index - STI COT Proxy The STI or Straits Times Index, a benchmark for SGX stocks is ending lower this week. The commercials are net short since May 2012.

Commitments of Traders Report - Euro FX - EURUSD It has been a while since my last post. Sorry about that. I will try and make up with a lot more posts in the coming days or maybe weeks :) Let's start off with the Euro! Greece going to exit the Euro? Looks like it... the position remains unchanged for the commercials since September 2011 and the last few weeks COT report has no significant changes. So you can maintain the short Euro position if you have one. Those trading forex can short the EUR/USD.

USD/JPY - How strong is the Yen? According to the 27 March 2012 COT Report, the futures traders are betting that the Yen will fall against the dollar and among other currencies. The Yen started the move in February this year when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced it would expand its asset purchase program.

Commitments of Traders Report - Euro FX - EURUSD If you are trading the EURUSD, are you following the commercials? They have been long on the Euro, hence they are expecting the Euro to come down in the coming weeks or months. They have been in that position since September 2011. Seems that there is still no confidence in the Eurozone at the moment even with whatever measures it is they are taking.

Commitments of Traders Report - Canadian Dollar Looks like the high made for USDCAD last year is short-lived. The commercials are now betting that the Canadian Dollar aka the Loonie will continue to rise. Optimism in the world economy contributes to the projection in demand for Canada's natural resources which is actually half of Canada's export revenues.