Uncle Ti 88

I have received emails from readers who asked why I trade purely based on the COT Proxy. Some have also asked me why I didn't cover stocks or instruments by looking at fundamentals such as financials ie balance sheets, profits, losses, assets, debts, dividends etc. I do trade fundamentals ie The Commitments of Traders (COT) Proxy. Basically it simulates what the commercials (smart money, big boys),  the specialists (hedge funds, investment companies) and the speculators (small traders like me) are trading. Just like the real COT report released by CFTC, it simulates the trade the commercials are taking. The commercials are the ones moving the market and we want to follow them. Hence the COT Proxy tells us what these big traders are doing. However I do not analyse stocks based on their financials. As you know financials can be manipulated. We have seen even big companies cooking the books. Enron, WorldCom anyone? Even if securities commissions or local monetary authorities tr...

Olam International - COT Proxy Olam's stock fell after Muddy Waters report that Olam is too ambitious in reporting its profit. Muddy Waters report carries a lot of weight as they shorted Sino-Forest as well as other a bunch of other companies and those companies are on the brink of closing down now. Even though the price has risen in early morning trading today, there is still a lot of downside. Based on our COT Proxy, the commercials has been shorting since early 2011 and another short signal was given in October 2011! The shorts are still in play and we got the signal way earlier than the Muddy Waters report. Stay clear of this stock until we see the commercials turn to net buyers. Don't be fooled when Olam said that they are buying back some stock. Stay clear of that bull trap statement.