Friday 22 June 2012

Cotton Futures : Long or Short? CFTC Commitment of Traders Report

Cotton No. 2 Futures - Commitment of Traders Report

Take a look at the disaggregated Cotton No. 2 chart. Usually the commercials aka the producers and swap dealers are moving in tandem. Both will either go long or short at roughly the same time. But for this commodity we can see that they move in the opposite direction. See the producers (blue line) and swap dealers (red line). Why is this so?

Please take note also that prior to 4th September 2007, Cotton No. 2 was traded on the New York Board of Trade before switching to ICE Futures US.

Monday 18 June 2012

Good Time to Buy Gold Now?

Gold Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report 12 June 2012

It is said gold traders have been bullish for the past few weeks. According to the World Gold Council, central banks are buying more gold after adding 456.4 tonne in 2011, the most in almost five decades.

Above is the chart for the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders for Gold. The smart money (the Producers and Swap Dealers) have been unwinding their short positions steadily. This could mean there might be a drop in gold prices and the end of the bullish run for gold.

Friday 8 June 2012

United States Natural Gas ETF - UNG COT Proxy

United States Natural Gas ETF - UNG COT Proxy

Everyone is hating natural gas right now and it has not been this cheap for over 20 years (if you factor in inflation)!

Straits Times Index - STI COT Proxy

Straits Times Index - STI COT Proxy

The STI or Straits Times Index, a benchmark for SGX stocks is ending lower this week. The commercials are net short since May 2012.